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  • Technorati: graph / links

    The polls are looking good!

    by Sunny
    13th October, 2008 at 2:09 pm    

    From the latest ABC polls:

    The economy is not the only wind at Obama’s back. McCain’s receiving blowback for what’s perceived as negative campaigning; registered voters by 59-35 percent say he’s been mainly attacking Obama rather than addressing the issues. Obama, by contrast, is seen by an even wider margin as issue-focused. (See separate analysis.) The issue advantage helps Obama another way; among likely voters who say they care more about the candidates’ positions on the issues than their personal qualities he leads McCain by a huge 39 points, 68-29 percent. McCain leads broadly among those who say personal qualities matter more, but there are fewer of them.

    The debates also seem to have helped Obama; 32 percent say they have a better opinion of him as a result of the two debates so far, vs. just 8 percent worse. For McCain it’s 12 percent better, 26 percent worse. Their third and final debate is Wednesday. One apparent result of these factors is a drop in McCain’s favorability rating, to 52 percent, a loss of 7 points since the Republican convention; 45 percent now see him unfavorably, a new high for McCain in polls since 1999. Obama’s rating, meanwhile, is 64 percent favorable, near its high and up 6 points in the same time frame.

    Enthusiasm for McCain’s candidacy, never strong, has softened alongside his favorability rating. Just 29 percent of his own supporters are “very enthusiastic” about his campaign, the fewest since August and down a sharp 17 points from his post-convention peak. By contrast, 63 percent of Obama’s backers are very enthusiastic, steady since September.

    Damn, that’s like to send Melanie Phillips into even more rage!! I love it. I’m off to LA this week to shadow and leanr from the Obama campaign. More on that later.

                  Post to del.icio.us

    Filed in: Current affairs,United States

    12 Comments below   |  

    Reactions: Twitter, blogs

    1. David T — on 13th October, 2008 at 4:33 pm  

      I thought for a moment you were talking about the “brown people” supporting Tories!

    2. Sunny — on 13th October, 2008 at 5:19 pm  

      that too, especially if Brown uses the Parliament Act to force through 42 days.

    3. DR1001 — on 13th October, 2008 at 5:31 pm  

      I can’t wait for this 3rd and final debate in NY this wednesday.
      I wonder what tricks (if any) McCain will have up his sleeve for it.
      Even though the polls look good for Obama, im still waiting until 5th November before getting too excited…

      Hope you have a fun trip Sunny, even though it seems kinda work related.

    4. MaidMarian — on 13th October, 2008 at 6:15 pm  

      All true, but the flip side of this is that I can not believe how rapidly McCain’s candidacy went down hill.

      The debate performances have been unpolished (unforgivable in this day and age), the attempts to ‘shake things up’ have looked like thinly veiled cop-outs, Palin’s obvious qualities have been underplayed when she clearly could have been better used, the message has been nowhere and on top of all that he cracked first and went negative.

      The comments about the economy a couple of days after Lehman’s went down the pan were astounding and I can’t believe that they were any sort of professional politics strategy.

      McCain has made much of being a maverick, not a standard Republican - he’s actually turned out to be weaker than the average Republican.

      Obama will win, he’s clearly got the momentum, but the truth is his opponent made it easier than it could and should have been.

    5. digitalcntrl — on 13th October, 2008 at 6:48 pm  

      The interesting thing about this election is how racially abrasive some have become. In past elections when it was two WASPS (white anglo saxon protestants) fighting it out many racist rightwing fruitcakes had the self control to not say racist things too explicitly. Now with the relatively sure prospect that a non white guy is going to be elected president they are scared shitless and letting their facades fall.


    6. Trofim — on 13th October, 2008 at 10:17 pm  

      Off to Los Angeles eh, just after Kathmandu. Aren’t you one of those people who advocates a low carbon footprint?

    7. zahed — on 15th October, 2008 at 3:10 pm  

      Wot? No swing states? I’m sure the weather will make up for the ease of campaigning in Cali, where it was never going to be a contest!

      Have fun anyway and say hi to my birthplace on Sunset Blvd!

    8. The Common Humanist — on 15th October, 2008 at 6:50 pm  

      If, hopefully, Obama wins, will Rumbold cry and shout ‘stolen election!’

      Or will he behave with grace?

      I really really like Obama. He has the potential to be a very great President indeed.

      Hang on, did someone say ‘Pallins obvious qualities…’
      But nice boobs and an ability to wink have little or no bearing on being able to carry out the Presidency should McShame die in office?

      She is a tool. End of.

    9. Don — on 15th October, 2008 at 7:50 pm  


      I think you’ll find Rumbold is cautiously pro-Obama. As for Palin’s obvious qualities, well she’s a mom, she shoots stuff, she has no truck with elitist book-learning and she’s really big on god. You and I may not see these as admirable qualities, but they are qualities of a sort, and very bankable in the US political system.

    10. El Cid — on 15th October, 2008 at 10:42 pm  

      I’d forgotten about this, but it’s worth bearing in mind:


    11. douglas clark — on 15th October, 2008 at 10:55 pm  

      El Cid,

      I am too tired to look it up, but the Bradley effect appears to be a myth.

      I’ll get back to you.

    12. Leon — on 15th October, 2008 at 11:01 pm  

      I would urge caution using this old chestnut: don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.

      We’ve been here before. In 2004 signs were pointing toward a Kerry win. There’s still twenty days to go before voting. If you think a week is a long time in politics well it’s an eternity when it’s an election period.

      Obama is ahead strikingly in the almost meaningless national polls but he is ahead in key battleground states (and a few states Bush won last time too).

      I have cautious optimist but let’s not start calling it for Obama just yet…

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