Asking For It

Seymour Hirsh writes a long, complex piece (in the New Yorker) about the continuing machinations in Washington DC for the ‘Next Strike’. Yes, war on Iran. The article is detailed, the facts are complex (nuclear intelligence) and the background is far from simple and none of it can be reduced to a simplistic “good vs evil” translation. No one is going to come out of this smelling of roses, so the most startling piece of analysis is that Iran may be inviting a ‘contained strike’ from USA and/or Israel.

According to the former senior intelligence official, the C.I.A.’s assessment suggested that Iran might even see some benefits in a limited military strike—especially one that did not succeed in fully destroying its nuclear program—in that an attack might enhance its position in the Islamic world. “They learned that in the Iraqi experience, and relearned it in southern Lebanon,” the former senior official said. In both cases, a more powerful military force had trouble achieving its military or political goals; in Lebanon, Israel’s war against Hezbollah did not destroy the group’s entire arsenal of rockets, and increased the popularity of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. …

According to the Pentagon consultant, “The C.I.A.’s view is that, without more intelligence, a large-scale bombing attack would not stop Iran’s nuclear program. And a low-end campaign of subversion and sabotage would play into Iran’s hands—bolstering support for the religious leadership and deepening anti-American Muslim rage.”

In other words, Ahmadinejad might be goading the US to cast ‘first blood’ because it will consolidate Sunnis and Shia support, thus making them stronger in the region.

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    bit like osama goading the US into striking afghanistan? i always thought that was the plan anyway - both of ‘em get to ‘radicalize’ their respective ‘target populations’. osama gets to be the ‘hero’ of some dodgy muslims and dubya looks like a strong president. i always thought it was so convenient for both of them. and they never found him did they? well i bet cos he was on bush’s ranch all along. will anyone ever get that their leaders don’t give a shit about them and are only interested in power?

    then again, some would say im just your average conspiracy theorist. funnily enough, ive always been a fan of the cock-up theory. still it’s pretty obvious people collaborate when it suits them - i.e. both parties get what they want! of course it doesn’t always go the way they thought it might - therein lies the cock-up.

    how’s the little one and how’s mrs.sid doing?

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    Cock-up theorist, ha ha.
    Always like your sideways view of everything sonia.

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