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    Polls yet again dent plans for Dawn of Dave


    by earwicga on 15th March, 2010 at 10:34 AM    

    This weekend’s polls showed another drop in tory support, further denting Cashcroft’s plans for the Dawn of Dave and making a ‘hung parliament‘ more likely:

    The Conservatives (38 per cent) are seven points ahead of Labour (31 per cent) in the ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph, down from a lead of nine points last month. The Liberal Democrats are up one point to 21 per cent … the Tories would be the largest party in the House of Commons but still 30 seats short of an overall majority.

    Research by YouGov for The Sunday Times found the Tories’ lead narrowed from five points to four over the past week.  They were down one point on 37%, while Labour and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 33% and 17% respectively … the results would leave Labour as the largest party with 302 seats, against 277 for the Tories, according to the newspaper. However, no party would have an overall majority.

    Nick Clegg has tried to distance himself from ‘the role of kingmaker in a hung parliament, telling the Liberal Democrats’ pre-election conference that the party “could lead the next government” if it upped its share of the vote from one in four to one in three.’ and he and Vince Cable have criticised the Conservative plans to make early cuts to public spending calling this “economic masochism”.

    So, what do you think?  Minority government or a coalition government or something else entirely?


         
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    1. cjcjc — on 15th March, 2010 at 11:36 AM  

      Neither, yet, if the betting markets are any guide.

      http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/15/why-arent-the-polls-convincing-punters/

    2. douglas clark — on 15th March, 2010 at 12:04 PM  

      cjcjc,

      Well, the betting markets are a gamble and the odds have a bit to do with it, don’t they? You, as far as I recall, refused my completely reasonable offer of a bet at 1000 / 1, not because you thought I was right but because you thought I was taking the mickey. Which I was…

    3. cjcjc — on 15th March, 2010 at 12:10 PM  

      Yes, Douglas, the betting markets reflect the (consensus) odds of a particular event occurring, less a bit for the bookie’s take.

      Your point is what, exactly?

      As I recall, you wanted me to offer you 1000/1 - so much for your certainty!

    4. douglas clark — on 15th March, 2010 at 12:22 PM  

      cjcjc,

      They are just a gamble. If you take the politics out of it we could determine whether Lab or Con was a better bet, given the market at that particular point in time. You’ve also got to realise that betting margins decrease the more money is placed on a particular outcome. The Cons have had a huge imbalance in their favour in that market for a long time and the odds reflect that.

    5. cjcjc — on 15th March, 2010 at 12:29 PM  

      Thanks. I understand how betting markets work.
      I’m still not entirely sure what point you’re trying to make.

      That the current odds are wrong?
      Well, there’s money to be made then by trading them.

    6. MiriamBinder — on 15th March, 2010 at 12:37 PM  

      Well, gambling aside, I do believe that as things stand we are likely to have a hung parliament. Whether this will actually be a good thing or not all depends on how the smaller parties are going to use their disproportionate ‘control’ … Ultimately, its all still to be played for really.

    7. chairwoman — on 15th March, 2010 at 3:36 PM  

      “Nick Clegg has tried to distance himself from ‘the role of kingmaker in a hung parliament, telling the Liberal Democrats’ pre-election conference that the party “could lead the next government””

      For the sake of us all, I hope those words come back to haunt him in the same way as his predecessor, David Steele’s, did when he told the Liberals to ‘Go home and prepare for Government.’

    8. MaidMarian — on 15th March, 2010 at 7:33 PM  

      Cameron will win, with a majority around 30. That he has gone so quickly from a likely three digit majority to 30-ish speaks vouumes about how poor the tories are.

    9. platinum786 — on 16th March, 2010 at 1:02 PM  

      I’d quite like to see a Lib Dem government.

      My reasons;

      1. It’d be interesting to see if they can walk the walk on national level. At local level they fall flat on their face. For a start the party who claims they want to aboloish council tax, at local level in my city is raising council tax.

      2. They can’t do much worse than the current lot or the tories can they? Give them a chance, they might make something of it.



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