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  • Technorati: graph / links

    Iran convulsed


    by Rumbold on 18th June, 2009 at 12:56 pm    

    The fallout from the (probably) rigged election continues as the supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi plan to hold a day of mourning to commemorate the seven protestors killed on Monday. The opposition protestors, who have rigidly stuck to peaceful protests, have been under attack from allies of President Ahmadinejad.

    Yet the tide may be turning. The Guardian Council, which is the real power in Iran, is considering recounting some of the ballots. Even if President Ahmadinejad is still declared the winner, it is heartening to see that others are recognising the necessity for moderation. Yes, some of the opposition supporters are hardly shining beacons of liberty, while the candidate himself has plenty of flaws. But sometimes such compromises are necessary.

    Barack Obama has also come across rather well during this.



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    23 Comments below   |   Add your own

    1. Shamit — on 18th June, 2009 at 1:24 pm  

      “Barack Obama has also come across rather well during this.”

      Rumbold he made a statement. That’s all he could do or any US president could do. And what makes you think that any other US President would have done anything differently.

      The President of the US, like most other people know, that changing the President of Iran does not make an iota of difference when it comes to strategic foreign policy and military decisions or even what the law could be in Iran. Its in the hand of Khameini.

      I don’t know what Obama has done that makes him look any better or worse than most other world leaders. Actually, Obama has probably got less influence than many other developing world leaders and Russia in Iran.

      So why the reference to Obama — have you suddenly become the fan of the Messiah? Just joking mate.

    2. Ravi Naik — on 18th June, 2009 at 1:48 pm  

      I don’t know what Obama has done that makes him look any better or worse than most other world leaders.

      When it comes to doing nothing, there are two kinds of leaders. The ones who know when to shut up so that they do not undermine an uprising for democracy, and others who keep silent when they see the rights of others being so viciously violated.

    3. Shamit — on 18th June, 2009 at 1:53 pm  

      Sorry Ravi- did not mean to offend your Messiah?

    4. Ravi Naik — on 18th June, 2009 at 2:05 pm  

      Sorry Ravi– did not mean to offend your Messiah?

      I get the feeling we would be great friends in real life, Shamit. :)

    5. platinum786 — on 18th June, 2009 at 2:30 pm  

      I don’t know too much about Iranian politics. However, I think going into the polls Ahmedinijad was ahead in the polls. So I think it was expected that he would win. I think the protests are due to the margin of the win.

      It was expected to be a close race, but I think some rigging may have occured to ensure Ahmedinijad won, afterall they are asian, they can’t help it. I think the protests and the size of the protests are due to two things; firstly Mousavi is quite a powerful man in Iran himself, he’s been involved at the top for a long time and can obviously throw his weight around and secondly, there is a deep divide in Iranian society, between the older generation who embraced ayatollahs and everything that came with them, and the youngesters who feel squeezed.

    6. Shamit — on 18th June, 2009 at 2:39 pm  

      Ravi - I second that

      ************************************

      Platinum - I agree with your thoughts especially the older vs younger argument

    7. The Common Humanist — on 18th June, 2009 at 3:23 pm  

      Platinum,
      Actually I think that in the urban centres he wasn’t ahead during the last two weeks of the camapign and, also, given that the electorate is overwhemingly young and urban (80 - 20 urban rural demographic split)

      Keep checking out Andrew Sullivan for interesting polling data analysis - the link to the analysis on pollster.com is interesting - worth reading.

      Obama is playing a blinder by not speaking too much about it - the last thing the reformers need is to be seen to have the US on their side explicitly.

      Am glad PP has finally switiched on the TV anyway (heeheehee - sorry, couldn’t resist)

    8. Shamit — on 18th June, 2009 at 3:36 pm  

      Chants of “Death to the Dictator” and “GOD is Great” is often heard — but for the first time (at least to my knowledge) this has been against a theocratic regime.

      Would the Iranian clerics have more compassion than their Communist counterparts in Deng led China? Or would we see a bloodbath?

      The good thing is someone has intervened because the militiamen responsible for the shootings and murder have been reined in, at least for the time being. And the Guardian Council meeting the so called “Opposition” candidates is a good sign.

    9. Shatterface — on 18th June, 2009 at 4:07 pm  

      The Chinese army was reigned in, at first. I remember the first few days of the protests remarking on Deng’s remarkable restraint.

      Mind you, the day after 9/11 (9/12? So confusing…) I was surprised Bush hadn’t nuked anywhere.

    10. Leon — on 18th June, 2009 at 4:47 pm  

      Barack Obama has also come across rather well during this.

      That might change if the extent of US covert operation under his command come to light and they show little change from the Bush admin…

    11. Iran convulsed | Free Political Forum — on 18th June, 2009 at 7:12 pm  

      [...] Original post by Rumbold [...]

    12. Rumbold — on 18th June, 2009 at 8:38 pm  

      Shamit:

      Well yes, he only made a statement. But it was an impressive statement, which got everything right (not our place to interfere, peaceful protestors should be defended, etc.). He was always going to have to say and/or do something, and I am not sure how he could have handled it any better.

    13. Rumbold — on 18th June, 2009 at 9:01 pm  

      Oh, and TCH, I wrote this in the morning, but wanted to give Jai’s post time to breathe. It was inspired by you (and others) though.

    14. Paul Moloney — on 18th June, 2009 at 9:08 pm  

      “However, I think going into the polls Ahmedinijad was ahead in the polls.”

      Which polls?

      P.

    15. El Cid — on 18th June, 2009 at 9:55 pm  

      Were they rigged? You clearly are not sure. Neither am I. There is no evidence. In fact, whether you and I don’t like it, they may well have not been rigged.

    16. Shamit — on 18th June, 2009 at 9:55 pm  

      Rumbold — I was just pulling your leg and I just wanted to needle Ravi a bit.

      Its always fun to needle Sunny or Ravi about Obama. They take it very seriously.

      I was just joking - sorry for making a serious post a bit trivial.

    17. Rumbold — on 19th June, 2009 at 8:05 am  

      El Cid:

      Well, the scale of the win surprised people. This is not proof in itself, but coupled with the historty of interference in elections, I think it is fair to say that there was at least some foul play.

      Shamit:

      No need to apologise. If we can’t have fun at times then what is the point?

    18. Rumbold — on 19th June, 2009 at 8:17 am  

      El Cid:

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/jun/17/iran-election-rigging

    19. justforfun — on 19th June, 2009 at 8:48 am  

      Plats - I don’t know too much about Iranian politics.

      You do yourself a disservice. You might not know the specifics, so just think of Iranian politics and Pakistani politics. There are many similar groupings, motives etc. Obviously I’m not saying they are exactly the same but there are similarities. You’ll get the picture yourself if you just delve a little and make a few connections as to where the money goes. Young and old is one dynamic, but the other is rich and poor.

      justforfun

      PS - If you haven’t already placed a bet on the Pakistani cricket team do so - I think they’re up for it, and now are playing for themselves and it really shows. I should have placed a bet last week when I had a feeling in my waters, but I’m sorry to say blind nationalism stayed my hand or I would have got better odds.

    20. Vikrant — on 19th June, 2009 at 9:24 am  

      PS - If you haven’t already placed a bet on the Pakistani cricket team do so - I think they’re up for it, and now are playing for themselves and it really shows. I should have placed a bet last week when I had a feeling in my waters, but I’m sorry to say blind nationalism stayed my hand or I would have got better odds.

      Heh jff, i hedged my bets on Pakistan on Sunday itself :D

    21. Cabalamat — on 19th June, 2009 at 9:50 am  

      @1: And what makes you think that any other US President would have done anything differently.

      I’m sure Bush would’ve managed to fuck things up.

    22. platinum786 — on 21st June, 2009 at 10:02 am  

      Here is something interesting for all of you to see;

      and then take a look at this, specifically at the caption;

      Sloppy journalism, or state propaganda machine?

    23. platinum786 — on 21st June, 2009 at 10:04 am  


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