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  • 12 reasons why Obama will still win


    by Sunny
    11th September, 2008 at 7:42 pm    

    Bob Elisberg makes some good points:

    4) Close as the polls seem to show, some pollsters are now acknowledging they might not have taken into account the huge shift of voter identification from Republican to Democrat, which they themselves say might have made results appear closer than they are.

    5) Close as the polls seem, pollsters don’t call cell phones. And those who most-use cell phones only are young people, who overwhelmingly are supporters of Obama over McCain.

    6) We don’t elect by national vote. Among various state polls, Sen. Obama is ahead by around 30 Electoral votes. Though both he and Sen. McCain are short of the majority needed, Barack Obama has a polling lead in Electoral votes of over 15 percent.

    7) Contrary to the Washington Post writing that we’re in the “final stretch” of the campaign, we’re actually at the very beginning. Both nominees were only settled a mere week ago. There are still four, major debates. In 1976, Jimmy Carter had a 33-point lead after the Democratic convention; he ended up winning by two points.

    I think his most important point is that the people who are running Barack Obama’s campaign are smart people. There’s no denying that. The biggest danger for Obama now is that he reacts rashly to McCain and Palin goading him, and makes a gaffe that shifts public opinion against him strongly.

    That isn’t to say the Republican team aren’t trying their best. They’ve started putting out ads now that blatantly lie (such the accusation that Obama has sent 30 people to Alaska to dig dirt on Palin), and they’ve been doing their best to make the election about rubbish like ‘lipstickgate’.

    But it does raise one point though. The American media is so thoroughly cowed by the right-wing smear machine that when they raise a silly controversy, then the media covers it because everyone else is. But when there are serious questions to be asked about Palin’s own lies (she keeps saying she cut costs in Alaska, when the opposite is true) they are nowhere to be found.

    The Republicans have become mightily good at playing elections on their own terms. They smeared Hillary Clinton with sexist remarks when she was running, and then started playing the victim card even when there’s been no sexism from the Obama campaign against Palin. How? How do they manage to drive the agenda?

    Obviously, the media helps. Then there’s the complete lack of any principles - one minute they’re questioning Clinton’s capabilities, next thing you know Sarah Palin is the most competent person on foreign policy because her state borders Russia. Great logic there. Could this be the problem with lefties? Far too many principles to care so ruthlessly about winning an election that you’d put out bare-faced lies?


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    7 Comments below   |  

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    1. DR1001 — on 11th September, 2008 at 9:08 pm  

      “The Republicans have become mightily good at playing elections on their own terms. They smeared Hillary Clinton with sexist remarks when she was running, and then started playing the victim card even when there’s been no sexism from the Obama campaign against Palin. How? How do they manage to drive the agenda?”

      I ask this myself whislt watching the pundits on CNN and can’t believe the hypocrisy.
      I was so turned off by the ‘lipstick on pig’ BS all over the TV last night on all the channels and only a very few (maybe just CNN) mentioned the fact McCain used the same term in May when talking about Hillary’s medical insurance plans.

      Its just so nasty and i can’t wait for Nov to come. it’s fascinating how things will turn out.

    2. Sunny — on 12th September, 2008 at 1:40 am  

      They’re scared of the shrill right-wing media. That’s why.

    3. Sofi — on 12th September, 2008 at 10:30 am  

      i truly hope obama wins but i’m not looking forward to november. i just cant see it happening. i hope my instincts are proven wrong!

    4. Ravi Naik — on 12th September, 2008 at 10:38 am  

      The media is definitely a problem. They seem to follow their editorials based on drudgereport. Still, as you point out, McCain’s lies are very easy to spot, and that puts the media in a position of having to call them out.

      Having said that, my fear is that America is not ready to elect a black president. Which is not to say that Obama will lose it, because I believe the odds favour him. But I take little comfort that Obama is tied or slightly ahead, because people may lie to pollsters and say they support Obama for fear they would be branded racist.

      Of course, we are in the week after the Republican convention, and McCain may be enjoying his Palin bump. So, Obama seems to be holding pretty well at McCain’s peak.

    5. shariq — on 12th September, 2008 at 10:49 am  

      Sunny, the point about the electoral college is wrong. There are too many states within the margin for error to say that if the elections were held now, Obama would be president.

    6. Laban — on 12th September, 2008 at 11:13 pm  

      “The left has far too many principles? Oh no, I don’t think that could be the problem.”

      http://aprogressiveviewpoint.blogspot.com/2008/09/american-lefties-their-smears-and-their.html

    7. The Dude — on 13th September, 2008 at 11:28 am  

      I can’t agree with you more, Laban. You can include the lily liver liberals as being too “principled” as well, on both sides of the pond.

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