Ken pulls ahead in latest poll


by Leon
25th April, 2008 at 6:50 pm    

Ken

Great news for Ken supporters and probably slightly less so for those who like the increasingly odd YouGov polls:

Ken Livingstone has edged ahead of his Tory rival, Boris Johnson, in the race to become the next mayor of London, according to an opinion poll released today.

The survey conducted by Ipsos Mori puts Livingstone on 53% – six points ahead of Johnson on 47% – among those certain to vote in next Thursday’s election, once crucial second preferences are taken into account.

It is Livingstone’s biggest lead since the campaign started.

This race really is on a knife edge; it’s almost become impossible to tell who’s going to win. The interesting thing is just how much a comment this is on Boris Johnson. Despite an amazing campaign of smears in the media (and obliging Tory/rightwing bloggers) he’s not doing as well as he should be.

If Ken is as bad as his detractors make out why aren’t voters turning against him in huge numbers? Could it be that despite his flaws it’s better the devil you know than the bumbling idiot you don’t?


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Filed in: Current affairs,Election News






12 Comments below   |  

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  1. Amrit — on 25th April, 2008 at 6:56 pm  

    As a first-time voter, I have to say… yes!

  2. Amrit — on 25th April, 2008 at 7:00 pm  

    And people need to realise that voting for Ken doesn’t mean you love him… I just think Paddick and Boris haven’t shown themselves to be competent enough.

  3. cjcjc — on 25th April, 2008 at 7:11 pm  

    Can I just point out – again – that yougov has the best historic record.

    The excellent http://www.politicalbetting.com has the lowdown on all the polling quirks.

  4. Dalbir — on 25th April, 2008 at 10:16 pm  

    Ken is probably the only politician I have a smattering of respect left for. I admire the way he spoke out against the Iraq war and demonstrated independence from Blair. I’ve never liked sycophants…ever. I like the way he has encouraged so many people of different backgrounds to celebrate their culture (e.g. Trafalgar Square).

    If I voted, it would be for him. He has shown conviction in his beliefs and has stuck his neck out for them – that marks him out.

  5. Ashik — on 25th April, 2008 at 11:19 pm  

    Great. A choice between a hard left candidate and a lightweight elitist bafoon, there must be a dire shortage of people wanting to be Mayor.

  6. billericaydikey — on 26th April, 2008 at 10:38 am  

    Leon, we seem to be back to the smear again. I will ask you the same question that have asked others both here and on commnet is free. Is what Gilligan has said true or not? It’s as simple as that. Every single article of Gilligan’s was true. Livingstone should go.

    Interesting thread on CiF from Tom Robinson, I have put my bit in of course. I have the advantage over most of those posting in that I lived through the period and know that Tom Robinson is talking crap.

  7. Rumbold — on 26th April, 2008 at 11:11 am  

    Leon:

    “Despite an amazing campaign of smears in the media (and obliging Tory/rightwing bloggers).”

    Which criticism of Livingstone was a smear? Which claim was made without supporting examples?

  8. Rumbold — on 26th April, 2008 at 11:28 am  

    Anyway, to stop my blood pressure rising further, I have imposed a self-denying ordinance on myself with regards the mayoral elections (until Thursday).

  9. El Cid — on 26th April, 2008 at 11:28 am  

    Your conclusion is prolly spot on. However, let’s be clear about one thing. Contrary to media reports, this is a shite election. There’s no real choice really.
    I am now thinking that I might not vote at all.
    So, I imagine, will tens of thousands more. I wonder which candidate that will hurt most. We shall see.

  10. AsifB — on 26th April, 2008 at 11:43 am  

    Leon, the answer to your question is simple : Ken has always been flawed. He became GLC leader in a coup after all… But even in the early 80s he knew how to build popularity and deliver memorable policies : uniquely given the rightward direction of New Labour, he has kept the London agenda firmly on his turf Transport, Environment and Housing.

    The fact is that over 90% of the GLA budget goes on fixed costs like police salaries – so the public rightly guesses Ken’s Chavez gimmicks and ONLogo obsession are just that – possibly wasteful, occasionaly cliquely but effectively froth in the bigger scheme of things.

    Similarly, hosting Qarwardri whose views I abhor (and which mean I’ll go Green for 1st prefeerence) was ill judged but in the bigger scheme of things are largely just froth; after all few people will have heard of Qarwardri before the media bigged him up, but I bet most Londoners remember Ken’s gauntlet to extremists when the 7/7 bombs went off “..however many of us you kill, you will fail.”

    It is wrong to get worked up about largely symbolic damage to social cohesion carried out by Ken and his cronies, without giving credit where credit is due for his actions and leadership when events take over.

    Policies and personality are also working in harmony to push Johnson back to the media barnyard where he belongs. Paddick and Johnson much to the latter’s chagrin I suspect are having to broadly support the Congestion Charge and Olympics -both of which Ken can claim credit for delivering.

  11. Boyo — on 26th April, 2008 at 12:56 pm  

    Paddick for me. The other two are just loathsome. Second choice, one of the more obscure ones, the time out editor or english nationalist (and no, he’s not a racist!).

  12. marvin — on 28th April, 2008 at 3:47 pm  

    Boris surges ahead in latest poll

    Why are the YouGov polls “increasingly bizzare”? because they don’t put Ken ahead?

    YouGov have an excellent history of accurately predicting election results.

    And apparently Ken supporters are spreading lies about Boris in Bengali.

    Nothing like the politics of fear, eh!

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