Later today voters in the state of Florida get to choose who they want as US president. Republicans are more important here than Democrats because the Democratic party voided the Floridian vote as punishment for bringing their election date forward. But Democrats can still cast their vote and I suspect Hillary Clinton will do well. This is because the state has lots of Jewish and older voters – both of whom lean towards Clinton than Obama.
The Republican race is going to be very interesting. There is a good chance Mitt Romney will take it for various reasons:
1) Rudy Giuliani, who should be finished after coming third, will split McCain’s pro-Iraq vote. Both are foreign policy hawks.
2) Floridians are not big fans of McCain’s pro-immigration stance.
3) Romney has always positioned himself as stronger on the economy (he’s made millions as a venture capitalist) – cited as the top issue right now.
But despite this it is more likely, going by polls, that McCain will win. I hope not. Florida is the last big election before Super Tuesday and my feeling is that for the Republicans this will narrow it down to a two-horse race. Effectively, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani will have lost all momentum after this. Romney should, after this, become the Republican favourite. He may be Mormon but he rallies the conservative base well for them (where McCain gets a lot of independent voters) and Wall Street likes him. Plus he has become very anti-immigration, which they like.
It’s also good news for Obama because Romney isn’t that well liked among floating/independent voters. Obama is worst off going up against McCain because both have broad appeal. What say you fellow election watchers?
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Filed in: Current affairs,United States