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Cameron calls for election: will Brown bottle it?

Posted By Leon On 3rd October, 2007 @ 5:30 pm In Party politics, Current affairs | 22 Comments

Well there we have it, a longish [1] speech which amounted to [2] ‘C’mon if ya think ya ‘ard enuff!!” from David Cameron. Re-using his party trick of no notes or auto cue the boy David had a lot to say that…erm…I can’t quite remember right now. Nothing really seemed to stick in my mind other than him swearing and the closing music (reggae music at a Tory conference!?).

Maybe there was more to his speech than attacking Brown, perhaps this will give him the [3] poll bounce he needs but it doesn’t seem to matter either way. What matters more, it seems, is his throwing down the gauntlet and Brown’s response.

So, will Brown bottle it? Or is the election about to be called?

Sunny adds: If Brown calls an election now, which is very likely, I will curse him hard for reasons [4] outlined by Justin.

Update: Poll speculation is [5] rising here, the first of the decision making polls comes out [6] tonight at 7pm.


22 Comments To "Cameron calls for election: will Brown bottle it?"

#1 Comment By El Cid On 3rd October, 2007 @ 6:37 pm

I wonder, I wonder.
He was in my building the other day, along with one of Sid’s heroes. Shame he didn’t call it then.
That would have been cool.
It’s a tough one — the economy and housing market are in for a rough ride in 2008 and 2009.
On the other hand, he’s got 3 years — right? — and he doesn’t want to go down as the Lady Jane Grey of British politics.

#2 Comment By Boyo On 3rd October, 2007 @ 6:44 pm

I think your question provides us with the answer. Brown cannot “bottle it” now as he and his cronies have allowed the momentum to build to such an extent that not calling the election would be spun as a tremendous victory for the Tories, would strengthen Cameron, and cast Brown as the dithering weakling.

It might not quite be the end of Brown, but it would signal the end of the honeymoon and perhaps mark a turning point in the fortunes of the Tories who could now, with some merit, claim to be being taken seriously.

So Brown must call an election this week or next. Unless he really is a ditherer beneath that tough guy demeanor… in which case he will have had it.

#3 Comment By A Councillor writes On 3rd October, 2007 @ 6:49 pm

We’ve been on red alert for an election for 10 days, personally I think that they will go, but I’m less certain than I was a few days ago - let’s say about a 65% chance.

If they don’t then, we’ve done a lot of preparation for when it is called, which means it isn’t a waste of time.

#4 Comment By Leon On 3rd October, 2007 @ 7:33 pm

Three polls coming out in the next few days, they’ll make the decision for him. Like A Councillor I still think it’ll will happen but less so than a few days ago.

I should say I’m not convinced the Tories had as good a conference as they [and some parts of the media] are to trying to convince themselves of. There’s a slight air of trying to talk themselves into good spirits about them right now…

#5 Comment By Nyrone On 3rd October, 2007 @ 9:09 pm

That speech was so uninspiring I almost fell into a coma. New Politics? Change? What a load of crap.
The rumours are true folks, new packaging, same old content.

and, he should have said sorry to the British Public for the Iraq War.

#6 Trackback By grumpy old matt On 4th October, 2007 @ 12:08 am

hats off to dave…

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but I quite like the Conservative Party and what they stand for. Quite a lot, actually. In fact, just over six months ago I joined.
Enough of me. You knew this was coming. 
Those of you who watch the news will…

#7 Comment By douglas clark On 4th October, 2007 @ 12:37 am

Leon,

The only thing that matters to Brown is whether or not he can retain his own seat. It is a given that Labour will win overall, what is not a given is that they will retain seats North of the Border. If the SNP play this correctly, perhaps by pleading that they didn’t ask for an election right now, perhaps by saying a plague on all your houses, Brown could end up as the guy that split the UK on the basis of being Scottish. Ironic, in’t it?

#8 Comment By douglas clark On 4th October, 2007 @ 4:25 am

Not that he is likely to lose his own seat, right enough.

The figures were, at the last General Election:

Gordon Brown: 24278
Alan Bath ( Scot Nat): 6062
Alex Cole-Hamilton (Lib Dem): 5450
Stuart Randall (Conservative): 4308

and the rest making up the numbers.

So, the more general point about losing big in Scotland still stands, though Brown himself seems safe.

#9 Comment By Letters From A Tory On 4th October, 2007 @ 8:33 am

It was the best Cameron could do, but Brown must still be tempted to call an election. It is amazing how much significance the next couple of poll ratings will now take.

#10 Comment By Leon On 4th October, 2007 @ 10:33 am

Yep, as I said above, the coming polls will be critical in making the decision.

#11 Comment By Rumbold On 4th October, 2007 @ 12:24 pm

Gordon Blair is afraid, and that is a good thing, since to call an election now would be damaging for the Tories. It is better to wait until the full impact of his economic mismanagement is revealed.

#12 Comment By Morgoth On 4th October, 2007 @ 1:31 pm

and, he should have said sorry to the British Public for the Iraq War.

Are you seriously suggesting he should apologise for getting rid of a genocidal fascist dictator?

What next, wanting Churchill to apologise for fighting Hitler?

#13 Comment By Leon On 4th October, 2007 @ 1:39 pm

Are you seriously suggesting he should apologise for getting rid of a genocidal fascist dictator?

Yes because that’s what the war was about and sold on…

#14 Comment By Leon On 4th October, 2007 @ 1:41 pm

Gordon Blair is afraid, and that is a good thing, since to call an election now would be damaging for the Tories.

If the polls show the public haven’t bought the brave face the Tories have put on he’ll go for it I reckon.

I don’t think Brown’s afraid although if he decides against an election the Tories will do their utmost to make him look that way (which will last a month at best before things move on).

#15 Comment By fiz On 4th October, 2007 @ 3:07 pm

He won’t get a lead in the polls like this again in the next 2 years!!

#16 Comment By Bal Singh On 4th October, 2007 @ 10:45 pm

I think he’ll go for it. Browny Sahib will call a snap election and will have the political heavyweights battling it out come Nov 1st.

Personally I think it’s the wrong time to have an election from the ‘potential turn out’ perspective, but can say that Brownie certainly does know how to stir up trouble (especially with his recent media centric jolly to the war zone).

I lost all respect for Cameron when he paraded Tony ‘Labour Donor’ Litt across the streets of Southall like a ventriloquist’s puppet a couple of months ago.

Obviously Labour and the Conservatives will be major players, but I sincerely hope the Lib Dems can show some might and gain some more seats. Poor old Ming is suffering from the ‘ageist’ media - but you never know he may be the real race winner come election day !

#17 Comment By Sunny On 5th October, 2007 @ 1:55 am

Well well! I thought the election was coming for sure until I saw today’s front page of the Guardian.

Forget that now.

#18 Comment By Boyo On 5th October, 2007 @ 8:11 am

Yes indeed, and ICM is historically the most accurate. But I refer you to my point at 2. If Brown does pull back I suspect we will not see a fourth Labour term, whenever he calls the election.

The present time remains his best chance: otherwise he will have efffectively relaunched the Conservative Party.

#19 Comment By Leon On 5th October, 2007 @ 11:10 am

I still think he will call it next Tuesday. Even with these polls he’s still in a better position now than he’ll be in 12-18 months when the economy takes a dive…

#20 Comment By Anas On 5th October, 2007 @ 2:01 pm

I don’t get this whole election thing. If he calls an election now it’s only because (Brown reckons) it is the most advantageous time for Labour and that he can do most damage to the Conservatives. But surely the public are going to punish him for calling an election which he can’t justify on any but the most mercenary grounds, certainly it won’t be because of public demand/need?

#21 Comment By Anas On 5th October, 2007 @ 2:02 pm

Ah yes Leon, the possible future state of the economy might be the overriding reason for calling an election now.

#22 Comment By ceedee On 6th October, 2007 @ 10:43 am

I believe the decision has already been made.

In the last 24 hours, several associates who work in the lighting and audio industry have been contracted by the Labour Party’s event organiser for a five week period.

I’d say that makes an announcement on Tuesday (of a general election on November 1st) almost definite.

ymmv


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URLs in this post:
[1] speech: http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=139453&speeches=1
[2] ‘C’mon if ya think ya ‘ard enuff!!”: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/tory2007/story/0,,2182777,00.html
[3] poll bounce: http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/martin_kettle/2007/10/was_it_good_enough.html
[4] outlined by Justin: http://www.chickyog.net/2007/10/03/banana-monarchy/
[5] rising here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1047
[6] tonight at 7pm: http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/has+cameron+fractured+gordons+lead/
879872?intcmp=news_hpage_poll